This question worries both those who mine cryptocurrencies, and hodlers, and those who are just going to invest in digital assets.
Humanity has come up with a lot of ways to calculate the future value of bitcoin. The most famous, perhaps, is the technique of technical analysis, although some even wonder about the coffee grounds.
Here we will talk about another approach to calculating the future value of the first cryptocurrency, which is based on the real cost of mining bitcoin, taking into account the increased complexity of calculations, the price of electricity and the cost of mining equipment.
It is worth knowing that the price of bitcoin has always followed the cost of mining: every time there was a deep correction in the market, the price of bitcoin always returned to the cost of production before starting another growth cycle.
In addition, it is necessary to understand that halving always leads to an increase in the cost of producing one coin. In 2024, there will be another halving, which will probably update the "bottom of the market", that is, the minimum profitable price of the coin - if the bitcoin exchange rate falls below the cost of production, then miners will be forced to turn off their equipment, because they will work at a loss. It is also necessary to take into account that the full-scale use of bitcoin as a payment system is likely to begin after the absolute majority of coins are mined. By this time, again, it is likely that most of the most pressing regulatory issues will be resolved.
What will be the next stage? Lending. Manufacturers will start selling their goods and services for bitcoin, which will stimulate demand for this cryptocurrency.
You should not let out of your attention the trend aimed at integrating digital currencies of central banks (CBDC), which will eventually squeeze fiat funds out of circulation, changing the status of an "additional form of money" to the main one.
It is difficult to predict what the bitcoin exchange rate will be in such conditions, but global demand clearly will not leave the quote at around $ 100,000.